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Worst case scenario Pandemic preparedness drill is ‘a scenario that could happen’ By ED COX of The Chronicle Before you panic, please note that what follows is only an exercise: We are two weeks into an expected eight-week flu pandemic with 1,200 people hospitalized and 52 dead in the state of Oregon. The virus responsible is antigenically similar to the H2N2 virus, which killed 1 to 4 million in 1957, and at its known attack and mortality rate, Oregon can expect 2,500 deaths by the end of next month. Again, this is only a test, but that is the scenario the Wasco Sherman Public Health Department and the Mid-Columbia Medical Center were working with yesterday, as they participated in a state-wide exercise to test health systems’ readiness to respond to a potential real pandemic, or worldwide outbreak, of influenza. “They have really played out a scenario that could happen,” said Karen Knoll, who works in public relations and marketing at the hospital and was acting as one of the public information officers for the exercise. The hospital was practicing accommodating scores of imaginary flu patients, Knoll said. Meanwhile, in a slight departure, Wasco Sherman Public Health was assuming no cases in Wasco County yet and was concentrating on vaccinating “first responders.” In a true emergency, these would be the people who first heed public calls to be vaccinated, even before local cases are reported. However, for the purposes of the exercise, they were members of 76 public or private organizations that were invited to any of the four free clinics Public Health was staffing in Wasco, Sherman and Gilliam counties. Those who responded received an actual flu vaccine, good against the seasonal strain of the virus, not H2N2 or any relative, known or unknown. Still, the chance to help prevent seasonal flu was just a fringe benefit, not the point of the exercise, Wasco Sherman Public Health director Kathy Schwartz explained. “The one we’re really concerned about doesn’t exist yet,” she said. That hypothetical strain would be similar to avian flu but transmissible between humans. To mimic a real outbreak, in which the availability of flu vaccine would be limited, the state provided Wasco Sherman Public Health with just 420 doses — 350 injectable and 70 to be administered as a nasal mist. More than half those doses were sent to St. Peters Parish Center in The Dalles as the site most first responders would likely visit. At the other sites — Moro Medical Center in Sherman County, Gilliam County Medical Center in Condon, and Arlington Medical Center — clinic staff were observing the work of public health staff in order to learn how to get a large number of people vaccinated in a short time. “In a real scenario, they would most likely be doing this work for us” in the outlying areas, Schwartz said. She said all 27 of her staff participated in the exercise — either vaccinating at clinics or helping out in the incident command center they set up in the department’s meeting room. Schwartz said approximately 110 first responders were vaccinated, which she considered a “very good turnout. I think things went very smoothly today.” While Wasco Sherman Public Health closed its doors to the public Thursday to attend to first responders, Mid-Columbia Medical Center did not interrupt services, although it was pretending to be full of flu patients. “We’re at ‘surge capacity,’” said Knoll, who works in public relations and marketing at the hospital and was acting as one of the public information officers for the exercise. In other words, these imaginary patients were creating a need for 70 beds at a 49-bed facility, and the hospital was practicing accommodating them even though staff levels were at only 80 percent, another stipulation of the scenario. “They’ve really played out a scenario that could happen,” Knoll said of the Oregon State Health Department. She said staff members were asked to bring supplies for 48 hours, on the assumption that they might have to stay on property that long, and the hospital was trying to figure out where they could put them to sleep, if necessary. In fact, the exercise — over six months in the planning at the state level — was done at the end of the 8-hour workday, meaning things are back to normal today at the hospital and Wasco Sherman Public Health is once more open to the public. Schwartz said she will be determining on Monday what to do with the leftover vaccine, but for the moment no more free flu shots are planned. As soon as an expected shipment of vaccine is received, shots will be offered for $22. Meanwhile, she encourages people to have their primary care physicians vaccinate them against the seasonal strain of influenza. Though they are far from pandemics, annual flu epidemics do occur, causing pneumonia in many cases and killing 36,000 people in the U.S. — and roughly 750 in Oregon. Young children the elderly are particularly susceptible. Back to Top Home |
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