December 9, 2008

GOP eyes Gordon Smith for governor in 2010 race

By BRAD CAIN
Associated Press writer


     SALEM — Among Oregon Republicans still recovering from a shellacking on Nov. 4 — including the defeat of Sen. Gordon Smith — there’s growing sentiment to turn around and make Smith their standard-bearer in the 2010 governor’s race.
     “I hear from people wanting to know, No. 1, how is Gordon doing, and, No. 2, is he going to run for governor in 2010?” Oregon Republican Chairman Vance Day says. “They are very excited about that possibility.”
     Democrats, of course, are optimistic that they will build on the gains they made in last month’s election. They believe that momentum will help them win the governor’s office for a seventh consecutive election in 2010.
     There’s speculation that former Gov. John Kitzhaber could end up being one of the contenders for the Democratic nomination — although he likely would face competition.
     Gov. Ted Kulongoski is barred by state law from serving more than two terms in a row. Kitzhaber had two terms but could run for a third because it wouldn’t be consecutive.
     For now, neither Smith nor Kitzhaber is interested in publicly discussing what, if any, political plans they have for the 2010 election cycle.
     But surrogates for both aren’t issuing blanket denials that the two are at least open to the possibility of running for governor.
     “Gordon Smith loves Oregon and public service. He’s keeping all of his options for the future wide open,” says Dan Lavey, a longtime confidante and adviser to him.
     Losing to Democrat Jeff Merkley was bruising for Smith, Lavey said, “but Oregonians rejected George Bush and the Republican Party in November. They didn’t reject Gordon Smith.”
     If Smith decides against running, then the GOP spotlight likely would fall on U.S. Rep. Greg Walden, who represents the sprawling 2nd District covering eastern and southern Oregon. He now is the lone Republican in Oregon’s congressional delegation.
     Walden, who considered running for governor in 1994, is adopting a “never say never” stance. But even as a minority Republican, Walden is clearly keen on being part of the debate on Capitol Hill over issues like health care, energy and telecommunications.
     “I haven’t ruled it out,” Walden says of a run for governor. “But I’m really enjoying my work in Congress.”
     After Smith and Walden, the Republican bench thins quickly in terms of people with the name recognition and fundraising ability to mount a major campaign for governor.
     That’s not the case with the Democrats, where several well-known figures are considered possible contenders — including Kitzhaber.
     Steve Marks, a longtime friend who was Kitzhaber’s chief of staff as governor, said Kitzhaber still has “incredible passion for the people of Oregon” and will continue working on issues such as improving health care and the environment.
     “Certainly, he did enjoy being governor,” Marks said. “But I’m just not going to speculate on whether he will run for governor again.”
     Other Democrats being mentioned as possible contenders include state Senate President Peter Courtney and Oregon Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. However, Bradbury is a friend of Kitzhaber, so it would be interesting to see if Bradbury would stay in the race if Kitzhaber got in.
     One potentially formidable contender would be Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio, the veteran congressman who represents southwest Oregon’s 4th District. He’s made no secret of his desire to run for governor some day.
     DeFazio issued a statement last week saying he’s not interested in promoting “pundit chatter and speculation” at this point about a run for governor — but he didn’t rule it out, either.
     “There will be ample time to speculate on my political future and that of others next year,” DeFazio said.
     Another congressman, Rep. Earl Blumenauer, issued what seemed to be an airtight statement that he’s not going to run for governor.
     The Portland Democrat was an early and vocal supporter of Barack Obama and is looking forward to working with the new president on transportation and other issues.
     “I have worked my entire adult life to get to a position where we have an enhanced Democratic majority in the Congress and an administration we can work with,” Blumenauer said. “That’s where I’m going to spend all of my energy in the next two years.”
     At least for now, it would seem that the Democrats hold a huge advantage over the Republicans in terms of being able to elect the next governor of Oregon.
     After all, a massive voter registration effort led by the Obama campaign in Oregon helped Democrats almost quadruple their 2004 voter edge over Republicans to some 237,000 in this past election.
     But it’s a long way to 2010 — an off-year election in which there won’t be an anti-Bush tide or Obama mania as there was this year. Lots can happen between now and then with economic conditions and world events that could change the political climate.
     “This is a Democratic blue state, but my reaction is that people should never conclude that one party will always win elections,” said Robert Eisinger, a political science professor at Lewis & Clark College in Portland.

.