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Projections show 15 percent job growth over decade

Oregon will add 258,000 jobs between 2012 and 2022, according to projections from the Oregon Employment Department.

This represents a 15 percent increase in employment over 10 years. The growth stems from anticipated private-sector gains of 232,000 jobs (17 percent) and the addition of 26,000 jobs (9 percent) in government. This projected 15 percent growth rate exceeds the 6 percent growth seen over the past decade.

Beyond gains from economic growth, an additional 392,000 job openings will be created by 2022 as workers change occupations or leave for other reasons, such as retirement.

The 2012 to 2022 employment projections reflect several ongoing trends: continuing recovery from the Great Recession, particularly for the construction industry; a growing health care sector, due in part to an aging population; continuing population growth; and the need for replacement workers due to baby boomer retirements.

Industry Projections

There will be job opportunities in all of the broad private-sector industry groups. All are expected to add jobs by 2022.

The state's professional and business services sector — which consists of computer systems design services, temporary employment agencies, business support services, and other firms — is projected to add the most jobs (47,000), followed by the health care industry (45,000).

Oregon's construction industry, continuing its recovery from massive recession job losses, is projected to grow at the fastest rate of any industry (29 percent, or 20,000 jobs).

Even with its relatively fast growth rate, the construction industry's employment will not return to the level seen prior to the Great Recession.

Other industries expected to fall short of pre-recession employment levels by 2022 include manufacturing, financial activities, and information.

Information — which includes newspaper, directory, and book publishers, as well as software publishing and other firms —will be the state's slowest-growing industry (7 percent), followed by state government (9 percent).

Federal government (-5 percent) is the only major industry sector expected to shed jobs over the decade.

Occupational

Projections

Between 2012 and 2022, there will be job openings in almost all occupations.

Oregon's economic diversity is demonstrated by the two very different occupational categories projected to have the most job openings in the state: service (135,000 openings), and professional (99,000 openings). Service occupations - which include jobs as varied as emergency services, pest control workers, and fast food cooks — generally pay lower wages and require lower levels of education. Professional occupations, which include web developers, engineers, and lawyers, tend to pay higher wages and require higher levels of education.

Health care and construction occupations tend to be the ones growing fastest, driven in large part by the aging population and recession-recovery trends noted earlier.

The top five fastest-growing large occupations are roofers, physician assistants, market research analysts, construction painters, and physical therapy aides.

In terms of actual job counts though, retail salespersons, food preparation and serving workers, waiters and waitresses, cashiers, and registered nurses are the five occupations with the most job openings anticipated in the coming 10 years. These are all large occupations, and they will all experience some openings due to economic growth and many more due to the retirement or other departure of existing workers.

In addition to the 258,000 new jobs from businesses opening or expanding, Oregon employers will also need sufficiently trained workers for the 392,000 openings due to the need to replace those leaving occupations. With the exception of construction and health care occupations, replacement openings will make up a majority of total job openings in all major occupational groups.

One-third of job openings typically require education beyond high school for entry into the occupation. More than half (58 percent) of the projected job openings will require some sort of education beyond high school in order for candidates to be more competitive in the hiring process. A bachelor's degree or higher will be needed for about 27 percent of the openings at the competitive level.

Contact: For more information about Oregon's occupational projections, contact Occupational Economist Brenda Turner at 503.947.1233 or Brenda.P.Turner@state.or.us.

Regional Projections and Additional Information

The Portland Metro area and Central Oregon will record the fastest employment growth over the 10-year period, according to projections made by the Employment Department's regional economists. The Portland tri-county area consisting of Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas counties anticipates 16 percent employment growth by 2022. The Central Oregon region made up of Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson counties also expects employment gains of 16 percent. Lane County's growth is expected to match the state's, at 15 percent. All other areas are projected to grow at a slower pace. News releases on employment projections for sub-state regions of Oregon were also distributed today.

Every two years, the Oregon Employment Department updates long-term industry and occupational projections to account for changes in the economy. The 2012-2022 statewide projections cover 97 industries and 717 occupations. All employment projections are available on the Department's workforce and economic information website, QualityInfo.org. Select a region from the map and look in the Publications tab for statewide and regional projections by industry and occupation for 2012 to 2022.

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